| Abstract | Prirodni plin ključno je gorivo u energetskoj tranziciji prema niskougljičnom društvu te ujedno
jedino fosilno gorivo za koje se globalno predviđa da će porasti njegova potražnja na tržištu.
Međunarodna agencija za energetiku (IEA) u svom scenariju novih politika smatra prirodni plin
najbrže rastućim fosilnim gorivom, koje bi pretekavši ugljen do 2040. godine postalo drugi
najveći svjetski izvor energije nakon nafte, te uz porast potražnje od 1,6% godišnje, potrošnja
plina u 2040. godini mogla bi biti gotovo 45% veća nego danas.
No gledajući EU u svijetlu činjenice da se potražnja za prirodnim plinom u Europi (35 zemalja)
smanjila u 2018. godini prvi put u tri godine i dosegla 536 milijardi kubičnih metara te da će
buduće mjesto prirodnog plina u europskom energetskom sustavu odrediti potrebu za uvozom,
uključujući i ukapljeni prirodni plin (u daljnjem tekstu kratica LNG) možemo zaključiti kako
se ta „plinska budućnost“ danas sve više suočava s velikim neizvjesnostima uslijed politika
klimatskih promjena. U tom kontekstu sve je izraženija tendencija da se plin koristi u prometu,
mahom u urbaniziranim i gusto naseljenim obalnim zonama, zbog ekoloških razloga. Ipak, za
LNG globalna dinamika još uvijek relativno spora, kako u cestovnom tako i u pomorskom
transportu. Inicijalno postoji problem „kokoš i jaje“ – potrošnje LNG-a neće biti ako ne bude
dovoljno razvijene infrastrukture, a izgradnja infrastrukture je relativno skupa i neekonomično
ju je graditi pošto još uvijek nema dovoljno potrošnje koja će investicije učiniti ekonomski
opravdanima. To posebno dolazi do izražaja kod bunkeringa LNG-a. Zbog nepostojanja široke
globalne mreže za bunkering, te donedavno ekološki liberalne globalne politike spram
pomorskih goriva, brodovlasnici pak nisu bili potaknuti investirati u brodove s plinskim
pogonom. S druge strane, primjena LNG-a u cestovnom transportu je ekološki dvojbena a
ograničena je na teški teretni promet i to isključivo na dužim udaljenostima.
Problem manjka infrastrukture za punjenje može se u Europi relativno brzo uspješno riješiti
poticanjem iz nacionalnih proračuna odnosno europskih fondova, što se već i čini, ali
ograničeno i nesustavno. S obzirom da se zbog dekarbonizacijske politike EU sve više postavlja
pitanja poticanja fosilnih goriva i infrastruktue koja ih podržava trenutno postoji uzak
vremenski procjep u kojem će fosilna goriva uživati poticaje, kao i gradnja infrastrukture za
njihovo korištenje. Nakon toga može se očekivati progresivno veće oporezivanje fosilnih goriva
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kako bi se potaknulo njihovo postupno napuštanje, što će investicije u plinsku infrastrukturu i
vozila/plovila učiniti neatraktivnima. Hrvatska, kao zemlja koja gradi LNG-terminal trebala bi
čim prije zauzeti proaktivnu politiku oko primjene plina u prometu. |
| Abstract (english) | Natural gas is a key fuel in the energy transition towards a low carbon society and is also the
only fossil fuel that is globally projected to increase its market demand. In its new policy
scenario, the International Energy Agency (IEA) considers natural gas to be the fastest growing
fossil fuel that would make coal by 2040. the world's second largest energy source after oil,
with gas consumption rising 1.6% annually in 2040 it could be almost 45% higher than it is
today.
But seeing the EU in light of the fact that demand for natural gas in Europe (35 countries) has
dropped in 2018 for the first time in three years, reaching 536 billion cubic meters and that the
future location of natural gas in the European energy system will determine the need for
imports, including liquefied natural gas (here and after referred to as LNG), we can conclude
that this "gas future" is increasingly facing uncertainty today due to climate change policies.
There is an increasing tendency for gas to be used in transport, mainly in urbanized and densely
populated coastal zones, for environmental reasons. However, LNG's global dynamics are still
relatively slow, both in road and maritime transport. Initially, there is a "hen and egg" problem
- LNG consumption will not exist if there is insufficient infrastructure development. On the
other hand, construction of the infrastructure is relatively expensive and it is uneconomical to
build it as there is not yet enough demand that will make the investments economically viable.
This is especially the case with costly LNG bunkering.
Due to the absence of a broad global bunkering network and, until recently, an environmentally
liberal global policy on marine fuels, shipowners were not encouraged to invest in gas-powered
vessels. On the other hand, the use of LNG in road transport is environmentally doubtful and is
limited to heavy freight and only for longer distances.
The problem of a lack of charging/bunkering infrastructure in Europe can be quickly and
successfully resolved by incentives from national budgets and / or European funds, which
seems, but is limited, and unsystematic. As the rising decarbonisation policy of the EU raises
questions about the financial and other encouragement of fossil fuels and the infrastructure that
supports them, there is currently a narrow timeframe in which fossil fuels will enjoy incentives,
as well as the construction of infrastructure for their use. Thereafter, progressively higher
taxation of fossil fuels can be expected to encourage their gradual abandonment, which will
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make investments in gas infrastructure and vehicles / vessels unattractive. Croatia, as the
country building the LNG terminal, should adopt a proactive policy on the use of gas in
transport as soon as possible. |
